"Software (Bot) Substituion" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Hawt Sommer

"Software (Bot) Substituion" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Postby Hawt Sommer » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:47 pm

http://www.examiner.com/article/bill-gates-outlines-the-mindset-of-a-i-for-jobs-the-future

It's really an interesting look at the future and it seems to be coming soon, a lot soon than I think the world economies are prepared for. I'm not sure I saw a reference to this in the previous thread.

20 Years in the future you'll go to McDonalds and a Robot will distribute your Manufactured meal without a single mistake because you'll be pushing buttons or it will clearly understand what you are asking it.. and what you want.

That means the low paying or Minimum wage jobs will be replaced with "Software". Everything from the food service industry to lawn care... every one of those jobs replaced.

So... it will start at 15% of the population of the united states paid working force and will escalate to other more complicated jobs from there.

How would you deal with it if you had the power to do so?
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Re: "Software (Bot) Replacement" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Postby Anarch Allegiere » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:50 pm

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Theoden
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Re: "Software (Bot) Substituion" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Postby Theoden » Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:55 pm

Whenever I hear such things, I think of how in the 1950s and 1960s everyone thought we would be in flying cars by 2000.

Bill Gates is going senile and becoming irrelevant. The only thing I like about him is his charitable foundation.
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Re: "Software (Bot) Substituion" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Postby Glaucon » Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:55 pm

Theoden wrote:Whenever I hear such things, I think of how in the 1950s and 1960s everyone thought we would be in flying cars by 2000.

Bill Gates is going senile and becoming irrelevant. The only thing I like about him is his charitable foundation.


Maybe we never got our flying cars, but a good deal of the sci fi predictions from back in those days did come true. On topic, a LOT of the manual labor done back then is now done by or made a lot less labor-intensive with the help of machines.

I don't think Gates is senile. Regardless, what he is talking about is talked about by a lot of economists and big shots in the IT industry.

Hawt wrote:I'm not sure I saw a reference to this in the previous thread.


No reference to any talk by Gates, but it was pretty much what I was talking about in that other thread, yes.

It isn't just about robots replacing the people flipping burgers (low level jobs). The big worry (or challenge, if you will) would be at a 'higher' level. Look at what the people filling those many company offices do. A great deal of that is filing stuff, faxing stuff, scanning stuff, copying stuff from a paper-information carrier (like, say, an invoice or employee form or an order or an application) into a computer system, basic manipulation of data with programs like excel. A LOT of those activities only exist because the full potential of currently existing technologies hasn't been tapped yet, because systems aren't aligned, cannot communicate, because people and legal systems still expect things to exist on paper. But IT is changing these activities all the time. The way offices operate is evolving constantly. Current procedures in most of them lag behind what is possible. Even without any real new technological innovation, a lot of the work that people working in mid-level administrative positions do could be cut into a fraction of what it takes now as the use of technology is optimized. This may not be true for every job. Maybe the people in sales and advertising will still have their jobs, because you can't use IT to have a machine do it for them, yet. But it is true for much of the mid-level work done by white-collar employees.

I guess that many of us are a bit blind to it, even if we are smack in the middle of it, but everywhere, new technology is being used to ensure that fewer people can do more work. The people working the check-out at the supermarkets scan their products, these days. They don't need to type anything in. And in some places, they are being replaced by automatic scanning systems or systems in which the customers have to scan the stuff they buy themselves. Obviously, that is going to lead to less jobs for people working at check-outs.

This is something that has been happening for a long time, obviously. And in the past, jobs disappearing didn't lead to mass unemployment because other jobs got created. But the question is if that will be the case, this time, for most of the people able to hold lower level or mid-level jobs. What do we need or what WILL we need that they can help us with? Bus drivers? What if the self-driving car is perfected? Garbage collectors? What if that stuff is done better and cheaper by fully robotized units? Customer server operators? What if it is cheaper to refer people to a website or have an automated system take the calls? All of them becoming sales agents? Some people are going to be really bad at that.

Of course, we cannot see what the future will bring. The telephone made letters by mail partially obsolete. But there are probably more people working in mail delivery and telephone services combined now than there were working on the mail service before Bell made his first call. Because the phone didn't replace the letter. Instead, people just started long-distance communicating a lot more.

However, my 'fear' is that there will be less jobs created for the type of employee that hold these disappearing jobs now. To be of value, to be paid for your labor, you typically have to be able to produce value. I am not sure what the diligent office worker, an ace at faultlessly typing data from paper from a form into a computer system, for example, the sort that will now be appreciated by his or her boss, will be able to contribute once IT has made it unnecessary for people to do that sort of work. Will he or she move on to be a great sales-agent? A different skill-set required.

Same with the burger-flipper, the bus-driver, and so forth. I do wonder if new developments will really create new jobs for them, or for the children who would have gone on to become burger-flippers, bus drivers or mid-level office workers before. Visionary IT geniuses will likely be in high demand (as they are now, even when senile), but the future of both the lower and the middle classes does seem to be uncertain.
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Re: "Software (Bot) Substituion" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Postby Allison Millet » Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:48 am

Glaucon wrote:The people working the check-out at the supermarkets scan their products, these days. They don't need to type anything in. And in some places, they are being replaced by automatic scanning systems or systems in which the customers have to scan the stuff they buy themselves. Obviously, that is going to lead to less jobs for people working at check-outs.


I work at a grocery store, and all of the produce, which usually accounts for half of a person's order I have to punch in manually and weigh it as well, As for the automatic scanners, most people hate them because they are over sensitized POS's which doesn't help that the operating system running all of the ones I've seen or worked with are Windows XP lol and no management has no plans to upgrade that any time soon.
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Re: "Software (Bot) Substituion" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Postby Glaucon » Sun Mar 16, 2014 8:26 pm

Then at your place of work, things won't change, just yet. But there are many supermarkets. In some, they WILL figure out how to do things right. Maybe they will stop selling the produce per weight and end up packaging it. Maybe they will use better visual recognition software, so that a camera can identify the type of produce. Maybe the automatic scanner will be made to work correctly. Maybe they will no longer use windows XP.

And when things work well in those stores, higher management will start copying how things are done there to other stores. Or if the big corporations are too passive, smaller ones with more innovative methods will rise up and start replacing them.

This stuff doesn't happen overnight. Some activities defy attempts to modernize them, either because they are already pretty efficient, because the people doing them do them really well the way they have always done them, or because the actively resist them. Or maybe because the management doesn't really know what it is doing to begin with. So, you can have people doing the same job, pretty much, for most of their working lives. Systems change, but the basic activity remains the same.

But that isn't really true on average. Not if you zoom out. What people have been doing in factories has changed remarkably, over the last 40 decades or so. What people do in offices has changed a lot, as well (mostly due to the introduction of computers), but now that it is (in theory) possible to connect all systems (and highly desirable to do so), things are going to change fast, I am guessing. Require a lot less work (and people). And if you add some of the promise of technologies about to be perfected or soon to be perfect to that, you are probably going to see lot of jobs disappear in offices, over the next decade or two.

So much is already disappearing. Retail? Taking massive blows as people start shopping for stuff online. Farmers? Fewer and fewer of them each year (while they use bigger and better machines to do the work). Switch board operators? Data-entry keyers and typists? All falling by the wayside, as new technology renders those jobs obsolete. News paper sellers? Who wants to read yesterday news on dead trees, these days? (I do, but hey). Mail delivery people? Send an email. Or a fax if you want to be really old-fashioned. Electronics and mechanical experts? Who bothers with trying to find and fix that broken transistor or that crooked gear or cog. Just order and replace the whole unit! It's cheaper.
Hawt Sommer

Re: "Software (Bot) Substituion" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Postby Hawt Sommer » Mon Mar 17, 2014 1:23 pm

An AI to AI Conversation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIRg93qa7Gw


AI recognizing Body language.

Some robots can interact socially. Kismet, a robot at M.I.T's Artificial Intelligence Lab, recognizes human body language and voice inflection and responds appropriately. Kismet's creators are interested in how humans and babies interact, based only on tone of speech and visual cue. This low-level interaction could be the foundation of a human-like learning system.


Asimo AI learning...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfPkHU_36Cs
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Re: "Software (Bot) Substituion" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Postby Theoden » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:31 pm

Glaucon, I think what you say will be relevant in 50 to 60 years time in Western countries, but you are being very bold to suggest it might happen in 10 years. It's 2014. Think back to 2004. Did things change all that much? Some things yes. Smart phones, some digitization of business practices and finance, internet usage. But not catastrophically, as you paint it, an entire digital revolution.

People are slow to adapt. These technologies require a lot of money to invest in. Time for people to learn these technologies as well. Many companies and institutions just don't have the capital to plunge into these things. Maybe some, but not all. A lot of the time, when new technology comes out, people just sit and wait until other people have tried it and proven it's profit maximization and cost/benefit projection. This takes time. The entire economy won't become this AI world in the next decade.

If you think competition will force people to invest in new technologies, then you underestimate the barriers to entry of companies into markets. There are a lot of companies that have a monopoly or have few competitors, just because other competitor's aren't big enough or have enough reach in their area. The U.S. isn't flat, and the world isn't flat either, not yet... and definitely not in this decade.

Even now, smaller businesses and medium businesses exist in areas simply because the customer is too lazy to economically maximize utility-cost, even though they are selling inferior products at higher prices. People will go to small and medium businesses just because it's close by. Maybe some big companies just don't deliver into that area. And I highly doubt Amazon's 'Delivery by Drone' thing is going to work... it's too easy to shoot things down and steal shit. Maybe even jamming electrical control systems of the drones for 'funsies' as the Iranians did with our CIA drone a few years back. It's not that difficult, and installing countermeasures is costly. That's an example of technology vs working men. UPS will win out, Amazon with their drones won't. At least until they come out drone trucks with ground drone delivery robots.

My point: Competition as a driving force into investing into the latest technologies as soon as they come up, is overemphasized. Some big corporations, yes, some startups (most startups fail) but not all will plunge into AI technology. Not the entire economy.

Safety is another thing. Anything digital that is connected to the internet can be hacked. It just takes time and resources. But there is not a single encryption that can't be broken with enough time and resources. If you were to connect all public transport to a computer mainframe with automatic systems, with a click of a button you can just have all the buses go and drive off a cliff?

At least, if you want to do that in todays world, you would have to infiltrate real humans into becoming suicidal bus drivers. But in this new digital world you paint, any shadowy terrorist organization with enough computer resources anywhere in the world can cause mass havoc and mayhem. Digital defense requires a constantly vigilant staff of security experts to monitor the situation. This is expensive. So what happens when the entire economy is linked to technology, an 'Internet of Things', and there's only a few security experts coalesced in a few areas of society, like defense, power plants, a few major city's mass transit systems.... what about the rest? What about smaller cities and their infrastructure?

When you recite this digital world, all I can think of is dystopia. A vastly in-equal society as such we've never seen, of financial and IT overlords becoming the 1%, and 50% of the country becoming the new poverty. Superrich and Proletariat. Except they wouldn't really be proletariat, because for them to be proletariat, they would have to be working men, wouldn't they? But no, the robots are there in the factories.

Robots and automated systems becoming the police, control by drones by someone behind a computer screen somewhere... Have you seen the movie Elysium? That is what I picture, when you paint the above mentioned picture. Massive societal inequalities, with the ruling class with the keys controlling technologies to oppress the masses.

So much power, able to be controlled by so few. The loss of privacy. The constant surveillance. It would only take one catastrophe to happen, with a group rising, promising security at the cost of freedom, and then we would all be living under tyranny and be enslaved by a quick digital takeover.


And then, only the second amendment would save us all. And that's assuming judges haven't gotten rid of it yet by creative 'interpreting' of the constitution.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIBtePb-dGY

Above, Earth, Century 22, after globalization and the next World War. :thumbup:
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Re: "Software (Bot) Substituion" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Postby Theoden » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:33 pm

Sorry, this is a more apt depiction of massive income inequalities and the arrival of AI.

Enjoy :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flLoSxd2nNY
Hawt Sommer

Re: "Software (Bot) Substituion" A Gorean Forums Think-tank

Postby Hawt Sommer » Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:55 pm

Image
The effect of new technologies, including PCs in business from 1980 to 2000

There's no reason for any individual to have a personal computer in his home
~Ken Olsen, founder of legendary minicomputer company DEC


“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
~IBM Chairman Thomas Watson, 1943


“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”
~Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society in 1895


“There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.”

~FCC Commissioner T. Craven in 1961


-------------------------------

And now:
John Elfreth Watkins Year 1900 predictions for the year 2000

------------------------------
1. Digital colour photography

Watkins did not, of course, use the word "digital" or spell out precisely how digital cameras and computers would work, but he accurately predicted how people would come to use new photographic technology.

Grab from The Ladies' Journal
A scan of the original article can be found online
"Photographs will be telegraphed from any distance. If there be a battle in China a hundred years hence, snapshots of its most striking events will be published in the newspapers an hour later.... photographs will reproduce all of nature's colours."

This showed major foresight, says Mr Nilsson. When Watkins was making his predictions, it would have taken a week for a picture of something happening in China to make its way into Western papers.

People thought photography itself was a miracle, and colour photography was very experimental, he says.

"The idea of having cameras gathering information from opposite ends of the world and transmitting them - he wasn't just taking a present technology and then looking to the next step, it was far beyond what anyone was saying at the time."

Patrick Tucker from the World Future Society, based in Maryland in the US, thinks Watkins might even be hinting at a much bigger future breakthrough.

"'Photographs will be telegraphed' reads strikingly like how we access information from the web," says Mr Tucker.

2. The rising height of Americans

"Americans will be taller by from one to two inches."

Watkins had unerring accuracy here, says Mr Nilsson - the average American man in 1900 was about 66-67ins (1.68-1.70m) tall and by 2000, the average was 69ins (1.75m).

Continue reading the main story
How did Watkins do?

image of Patrick Tucker
Patrick Tucker
World Future Society
Watkins' record as a forecaster, based on this small segment of his work, was less than perfect. But that doesn't mean he was a bad futurist. Although he died before the World Future Society was formed in 1966, we would have been honoured to consider him a member. We believe that talking about the future is the most important thing that people do, even though the future, by its nature, is unknowable. We invent the future through our actions and change it constantly. We can never know it fully but we can always be better prepared for what may occur. Watkins helped people begin this act of preparation and considered creation.

World Future Society
BBC experts predict big stories in 2012
Today, it's 69.5ins (1.76m) for men and 64ins (1.63m) for women.

3. Mobile phones

"Wireless telephone and telegraph circuits will span the world. A husband in the middle of the Atlantic will be able to converse with his wife sitting in her boudoir in Chicago. We will be able to telephone to China quite as readily as we now talk from New York to Brooklyn."

International phone calls were unheard of in Watkins' day. It was another 15 years before the first call was made, by Alexander Bell, even from one coast of the US to the other. The idea of wireless telephony was truly revolutionary.

4. Pre-prepared meals

"Ready-cooked meals will be bought from establishment similar to our bakeries of today."

The proliferation of ready meals in supermarkets and takeaway shops in High Streets suggests that Watkins was right, although he envisaged the meals would be delivered on plates which would be returned to the cooking establishments to be washed.

5. Slowing population growth

"There will probably be from 350,000,000 to 500,000,000 people in America [the US]."

The figure is too high, says Nilsson, but at least Watkins was guessing in the right direction. If the US population had grown by the same rate it did between 1800 and 1900, it would have exceeded 1 billion in 2000.

"Instead, it grew just 360%, reaching 280m at the start of the new century."

6. Hothouse vegetables

Winter will be turned into summer and night into day by the farmer, said Watkins, with electric wires under the soil and large gardens under glass.

Vegetables
"Vegetables will be bathed in powerful electric light, serving, like sunlight, to hasten their growth. Electric currents applied to the soil will make valuable plants to grow larger and faster, and will kill troublesome weeds. Rays of coloured light will hasten the growth of many plants. Electricity applied to garden seeds will make them sprout and develop unusually early."

Large gardens under glass were already a reality, says Philip Norman of the Garden Museum in London, but he was correct to predict the use of electricity. Although coloured lights and electric currents did not take off, they were probably experimented with.

Continue reading the main story
Who was J Elfreth Watkins?

Lived from 1852-1903
Was a railroad engineer until he suffered a "disabling" accident in 1873
After that, became a clerk for the Pennsylvania Railroad
In 1885, took a job as curator at the transport section of the US National Museum
Source: Smithsonian Institution Archives

"Electricity certainly features in plant propagation. But the earliest item we have is a 1953 booklet Electricity in Your Garden detailing electrically warmed frames, hotbeds and cloches and electrically heated greenhouses, issued by the British Electrical Development Association.

"We have a 1956 soil heater, used in soil to assist early germination of seeds in your greenhouse."

7. Television

"Man will see around the world. Persons and things of all kinds will be brought within focus of cameras connected electrically with screens at opposite ends of circuits, thousands of miles at a span."

Watkins foresaw cameras and screens linked by electric circuits, a vision practically realised in the 20th Century by live international television and latterly by webcams.

8. Tanks

Twitter grab
Tweets praised Watkins' accuracy
"Huge forts on wheels will dash across open spaces at the speed of express trains of today."

Leonardo da Vinci had talked about this, says Nilsson, but Watkins was taking it further. There weren't many people that far-sighted.

9. Bigger fruit

"Strawberries as large as apples will be eaten by our great-great-grandchildren."

Lots of larger varieties of fruit have been developed in the past century, but Watkins was over-optimistic with regard to strawberries.

10. The Acela Express

"Trains will run two miles a minute normally. Express trains one hundred and fifty miles per hour."

Exactly 100 years after writing those words, to the very month, Amtrak's flagship high-speed rail line, the Acela Express, opened between Boston and Washington, DC. It reaches top speeds of 150mph, although the average speed is considerably less than that. High-speed rail in other parts of the world, even in 2000, was considerably faster.

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