The cliff

The fiscal cliff, what will happen? Who will lose? Dems, GOP or USA?

They will put America first and reach a compromise.
1
3%
They will put America first and reach a compromise.
1
3%
They will make a deal at the very last second.
4
11%
They will make a deal at the very last second.
4
11%
The R's will be the winners: No tax increase.
0
No votes
The R's will be the winners: No tax increase.
0
No votes
The dems will be the winners: More tax for the rich
1
3%
The dems will be the winners: More tax for the rich
1
3%
They reach a deal that postpones matters, somehow.
6
17%
They reach a deal that postpones matters, somehow.
6
17%
They won't agree, but austerity is what the US needs.
0
No votes
They won't agree, but austerity is what the US needs.
0
No votes
They won't agree: Welcome to a new depression.
4
11%
They won't agree: Welcome to a new depression.
4
11%
Other (please specify).
2
6%
Other (please specify).
2
6%
 
Total votes: 36
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Glaucon
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Re: The cliff

Postby Glaucon » Sun Dec 23, 2012 8:03 pm

Theoden wrote:It's Christmas :D No one should work during Christmas week. They've still got time. Deadline's December 31st right? The real action should happen around the 30th and 31st when the last minute deal is struck. Once it is, everyone can ching their champagne and say 'Happy New Year!' :fryingpan:


Well, guess who has to be up early tomorrow? Christmas week my ass. And I don't have to worry about the jobs of millions. Lazy ass fuckers, I say. But that is what you get when you let a group of people determine their own working hours.

*goes off grumbling* :pft:

As for your prediction... which was mine before, maybe you will turn out to be right. I don't quite see how they will manage it, though.
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Theoden
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Re: The cliff

Postby Theoden » Sun Dec 23, 2012 8:54 pm

Glaucon wrote:
Theoden wrote:It's Christmas :D No one should work during Christmas week. They've still got time. Deadline's December 31st right? The real action should happen around the 30th and 31st when the last minute deal is struck. Once it is, everyone can ching their champagne and say 'Happy New Year!' :fryingpan:


Well, guess who has to be up early tomorrow? Christmas week my ass. And I don't have to worry about the jobs of millions. Lazy ass fuckers, I say. But that is what you get when you let a group of people determine their own working hours.

*goes off grumbling* :pft:

As for your prediction... which was mine before, maybe you will turn out to be right. I don't quite see how they will manage it, though.


Do you think they will at least do something to postpone it all or just let the economy fall off the cliff?

I should start taking bets on the cliff really. I tried offering bets to people with the Presidential election with 10x payout if Romney wins but only 1x for me if Obama wins but no one was stupid enough to take it.
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Glaucon
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Re: The cliff

Postby Glaucon » Sun Dec 23, 2012 10:15 pm

Oh, I voted nominal agreement that is a postponement mostly, on my own poll. But given the state of the house republicans, I am no longer confident. Their 'leader' could not even get a slight tax increase token alternative that he came up with through with the 'higher-taxes-for-the-rich-over-my-dead-body crowd of his own party, a proposal that the democrats would never have accepted anyway, so the only way to get a 'deal' would be for the moderates to be willing to be bold and agree to a compromise alone. Since they are pretty much leaderless and stepping forward to lead the house republicans now is probably political suicide, so they will remain leaderless, with no one to hide behind if they do compromise. And IF they compromise and many of their friends in the house don't... they are very likely to be challenged on it in two years time, and will probably be painted as traitors by many on the right. Plus they took 'oaths', made promises. How many would have the courage to potentially sacrifice themselves, showing a mixture of pragmatism and idealism for the economy of their own country and in order to stop the automatic significant tax-raise across the board? I really couldn't tell. My faith in the house republicans isn't all that great, I must admit.

But I hope you are right. So I'd be happy to bet 1000 lindens on it. Either way, I'd win somehow, that way. ;)
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Glaucon
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Re: The cliff

Postby Glaucon » Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:06 am

Not sure why you'd think it would be a good thing when the vast majority of economists (including 'left wing' ones) say it would be a really bad thing. Or rather, I think I can guess.
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HorizonNinetails
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Re: The cliff

Postby HorizonNinetails » Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:16 am

We're stuck on a system of borrowing.

We're stuck on a system of bubbles.

If you're going to have bubbles, you need to have the bubble burst at some point.

If they delay this fiscal cliff, there will just be another one...and another one...and another one.

Making the banks bigger didn't help....it exacerbated the issue.

Bernanke is trying. He's been trying hard to avoid QE3 and 4 and 5 and bla bla bla....but eventually, when policy doesn't get you new jobs and the economy is in the shitter, you need to restore market confidence and try to prop up a falling tent.

It would be horrible for the world if the US collapsed. It would be horrible if commodities got slashed and pensions died.

But...I dont see it ending any other way. I just see so much borrowing tossing the US into the throws of death.
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Glaucon
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Re: The cliff

Postby Glaucon » Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:35 am

But if swallowing the 'bitter pill' will just makes you sicker, it is better not to swallow the bitter pill.

In the long run, the USA will have to do the sort of things that going over the fiscal cliff will do. But things like that are best done gradually, without rocking the boat too much. Shock therapy rarely seems to work for struggling economies.
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HorizonNinetails
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Re: The cliff

Postby HorizonNinetails » Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:45 am

The system is bloated.

They don't really make anything anymore.

The best shot they have is LNG or nat gas, and even then they're too dumb to make use of it. The stuff is dirt cheap in the US and they still havent swapped systems.

So what are you going to do?

They're mired in their own arguments.

I hope they do go over the fiscal cliff and have to deal with the austerity measures they've made for themselves.

Our own personal debt here in Canada is getting the same way.

Eventually we're going to be choked out by this housing bubble.
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Glaucon
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Re: The cliff

Postby Glaucon » Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:54 am

HorizonNinetails wrote:The system is bloated.


True enough. Has been for over a decade or longer. But when you are floating in a hot air balloon, you don't want to let all the hot air out.

They don't really make anything anymore.

I hope they do go over the fiscal cliff and have to deal with the austerity measures they've made for themselves.


THEY will be fine. It is us I am concerned about.

Our own personal debt here in Canada is getting the same way.

Eventually we're going to be choked out by this housing bubble.


Ah... I thought you lived in the USA. Anyway... so much for optimism. :thumbup: And we are all dead in the long run anyway. :problem:

Kaitlin wrote:It would be a good thing in many ways. I'm not a fan of this level of austerity but if we went over the cliff one thing is certain, you would have deficit reduction.


Hmmm, well, maybe not as much as you might hope. Problem is that if you do stuff that really impacts the economy in a major way, and that causes the economy to slow by a lot, you get diminishing returns for every cut or tax increase. If you increase taxes across the board from, say 30 to 33 percent across the board and that causes your economy to slow by 10 percent... your tax revenues will actually go down and your deficit up. See Greece.

If you can increase taxes and cut spending in such a way that it won't effect the economy much, you will get the best deficit-decreasing results from them. Going off the fiscal cliff seems to be exactly what you should not want. Which is why it got that name.

It also takes the silly Norquist pledge off the table allowing Republicans to save face.


It would allow the Norquist pledge to remain in force. Not sure why one of the two major parties remaining committed to some influential rich guy's chokehold/blackmailing scheme, even if it goes against their better judgement is a good thing. :o.O: Also, I doubt that going over the cliff will stop them from having another game of chicken over the next required debt ceiling increase.

The tax cuts expire December 31st without a single vote. I personally think democrats are in a much better position to deal on lifting the debt ceiling by dangling the carrot of lowering tax rates from the highest level.


I think that is a somewhat perverse way of thinking. Pure partisan thinking, to be honest. Yes, the democrats may have the stronger position, gain a political 'win'. But what is that to the millions of people affected by the actual implemented policy? I get that you like the democrats to win. But it isn't a game-show.

I don't fully agree with the entire recession argument despite what some economists have said. It reminds me of all of the press surrounding WMDs. Unemployment rising to 9.1%+ would force action on the jobs front. The recovering economy over the last 18 months has led to little urgency in stimulating the economy


Sorry, Kaitlin. I do respect your intelligence, but ... this really has very little do to with WMDs. That was some agencies and (mostly) the US (and UK) Government saying a thing and the press copying it faithfully in the name of patriotism. This 'prediction' (it is a prediction, not a state of fact, as the WMD claim was) comes from various official agencies as well as from lots of economists (left and right) that have no common agenda and are largely independent of parties or the government. Economists can get stuff wrong, of course. And it is hard to predict the economy. But if this is what their models and calculations show them, it bears little comparison to the willful lies that were spread around and passed on in the build-up to the invasion of Iraq.

And personally, whilst I am hardly qualified to judge the details of the predictions made by the Federal Budget office, Bernanke, Krugman etc., what they say makes sense to me. Bernanke has pretty much said that it would be MUCH BETTER to implement the packages proposed by the bi-partisan committees like Domenici-Rivlin and Bowles-Simpson. The USA being unable to do so because it's politicians cannot bring themselves to compromise would be an epic fail for it's political system and for the USA itself.
Carter
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Re: The cliff

Postby Carter » Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:53 pm

Mmmm .. here you go

Do you want one of the world's highest quality of living ?

Do you want to live longer.. an average of 5 years over your current life expectancy

Do you want to live in one of the world's lowest crime rate countries ?

Do you want to live in a place which considered to be educationally one of the highest per capita in the world.

Do you want to live in a country where there is no legacy of debt for your children and future generations ?

Sounds great huh ??

Swedes' personal income tax can be as little as 29 per cent of their pay, but most people (anyone earning over £32,000 - $50,00-) will pay between 49 and 60 per cent through a combination of local government and state income tax.


See.. higher taxes means greater of quality of life and some great furniture too

Cliff what Cliff.. ??
Resolver Bouchard
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Re: The cliff

Postby Resolver Bouchard » Fri Dec 28, 2012 4:31 am

Yes but paying a bit more tax will magically prevent someone of limited intelligence, education, sporting skill etc. from achieving the American dream and becoming rich. :roll:

Also its pretty much communism, as it involves supporting people and being a member of society.

And there is probably something in the constitution against it which the rest of the world just wouldn't understand.

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