Place your bets, please.

Who will be next year's US President?

Barak Obama
36
32%
Barak Obama
36
32%
Mitt Romney
4
4%
Mitt Romney
4
4%
Rick Santorum
0
No votes
Rick Santorum
0
No votes
Newt Gingrich
1
1%
Newt Gingrich
1
1%
Ron Paul
1
1%
Ron Paul
1
1%
Another Rep. candidate (after a brokered convention)
1
1%
Another Rep. candidate (after a brokered convention)
1
1%
Biden (because someone will pull a Lincoln on Obama)
0
No votes
Biden (because someone will pull a Lincoln on Obama)
0
No votes
No idea
4
4%
No idea
4
4%
There won't be one... Maya calender, remember?
2
2%
There won't be one... Maya calender, remember?
2
2%
Oh, shut up, Glaucon
7
6%
Oh, shut up, Glaucon
7
6%
 
Total votes: 112
Mat
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Re: Place your bets, please.

Postby Mat » Thu Aug 09, 2012 8:44 pm

Mitt is far to left for me to ever vote for him. I still to this day have no idea why he got as much support as he did in the primaries. I would rather keep things as they are today, and that is in complete gridlock under Obama than to have this idiot in Office. Perhaps in 4 years there can be a candidate for the Republican party who is not someone who should change his party affiliation to the Democrats. I must admit though I do not know why Democrats are not voting for this guy he will be able to achieve much of the Democratic agenda much more so than Obama can now that he is a lame duck.
There is no worse tyranny than to force a man to pay for what he does not want merely because you think it would be good for him
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Glaucon
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Re: Place your bets, please.

Postby Glaucon » Fri Aug 10, 2012 1:04 am

The more (extreme) right wing candidates that rose up to challenge Romney were all unelectable idiots, that's why.

Anyway... it seems that even if Obama is still very slightly in the lead in the polls, it is a very close thing. I had not expected that.
Resolver Bouchard
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Re: Place your bets, please.

Postby Resolver Bouchard » Fri Aug 10, 2012 1:51 am

You guys have really missed out on a great opportunity, you could have asked Boris Johnson to run for president. :thumbup:

He can get away with pretty much anything, you could invade Mexico or Canada and the world would just laugh at your antics.
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Glaucon
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Re: Place your bets, please.

Postby Glaucon » Fri Aug 10, 2012 7:22 am

Well, the guy (Boris) has the ability to laugh at himself, which is a pretty redeeming quality.

As for the 'lead' of Obama: You are right, Mat. If you look at the battle over swing-states, Obama is actually quite firmly in the lead. But as long as the general polls indicate it is pretty close, Romney just needs to climb a few points to change that, make swing states flip to his side.

Also, the 'general polls' matter because they are news, part of the political narrative. People like 'winners' and a candidate doing well in polls has wind in his sails.
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Glaucon
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Re: Place your bets, please.

Postby Glaucon » Fri Aug 10, 2012 7:50 am

Kaitlin wrote:
Glaucon wrote:As for the 'lead' of Obama: You are right, Mat. If you look at the battle over swing-states, Obama is actually quite firmly in the lead. But as long as the general polls indicate it is pretty close, Romney just needs to climb a few points to change that, make swing states flip to his side.

Also, the 'general polls' matter because they are news, part of the political narrative. People like 'winners' and a candidate doing well in polls has wind in his sails.


Mat? He hasn't gone that far over to the dark side. The general polls actually do show a pretty decisive lead that has increased after narrowing to head to head if you remove Rasmussen. Even the Fox News poll has Obama leading by 9%. I'll just hope they put Ann Coulter back on...it should jump a point or two higher.

In a country so evenly divided along party lines anything beyond 2-3% is a sizable lead.


Oops! Sorry, Kaitlin. I am so used to Mat's quick responses in threads about politics I must have assumed it was him replying. My bad. (Though, of course, there is hardly any difference between your political views). ;)

And you may be right. I tend to look at Gallup, which seems to differ from other polls in consistently rating Obama lower than the rest (doesn't mean they are against Obama, it may just be their methodology or panel-composition). Even there, Obama is gaining a little (though not much).

Still, with leads emerging and dwindling in just a few weeks or even days, it seems far too early to call this race (even if I already placed my bet).
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Glaucon
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Re: Place your bets, please.

Postby Glaucon » Fri Aug 10, 2012 7:53 am

Kaitlin wrote:To add a bit more perspective...

Obama vs Romney
8/10/2012 48.4 44.0

Obama vs McCain
8/10/2008 46.6 42.2

Maybe the polls just like this 4.4% spread on this day of the election cycle
:lol:


Well, around that time in the year, it was far from a foregone conclusion that the annointed one would win. A little thing called a crisis happened, and that didn't help McCain.
Hawt Sommer

Re: Place your bets, please.

Postby Hawt Sommer » Fri Aug 10, 2012 9:39 am

Polls...

:problem:

They are usually not even close to the results.

When they are accurate, I'm sure its dumb luck.

"Out of the 900 Communists, Welfare recipients or people that we gave a free pack of cigarettes to, 49% of them are going to vote for Barrak Obama"

Are they polling people that are actually going to be in the voting booths in November?

I bet there is a nice spread on how many aren't going to be there.
Mat
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Re: Place your bets, please.

Postby Mat » Fri Aug 10, 2012 9:46 am

I generally do not like polls, and question their accuracy often but they are a useful tool, just easily manipulated to show any result you want especially if the raw data and methodology is not disclosed along with the results.
There is no worse tyranny than to force a man to pay for what he does not want merely because you think it would be good for him
Jenny1919
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Re: Place your bets, please.

Postby Jenny1919 » Fri Aug 10, 2012 10:37 am

Both Canidates suck balls rather see them both strung up on a pole... None the less the incumbent is always favored to win and does most of the time... I think if there isnt any big news economy wise for the better Obama will lose
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serene mistwood
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Re: Place your bets, please.

Postby serene mistwood » Sun Aug 12, 2012 4:41 am

Paul Ryan? I wouldn't have found it believable for Romney to find someone as self-entitled and deluded as he himself is. How silly of me.
"She still had all of her marbles, though every one of them was a bit odd and rolled asymmetrically." Firebirds Rising.

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